Forget Manchester City in the FA Cup, these are the games that really matter...and will Peterborough United get enough points in February to get out of the bottom three?

Posh have received a huge break this season with two teams stuck in the middle of the relegation battle because of points deductions for off-field misdemeanours. Posh could survive with a record low number of points, nine years after suffering relegation with a record high points number!

February is going to be crucial for Posh with two games against teams also in the bottom four, two more against teams stuck in the bottom half and a couple against teams in decent form.

This month will also be crucial for Reading and Derby County, the teams Posh must finish above in their mini league of four to escape the drop.

Here are the big February games. It’s assumed Cardiff are too far ahead of Posh to be caught.

Current bottom four: 21st Reading P28, Pts 22; 22nd POSH P27, Pts 20; Derby P29, Pts 15. Barnsley P28, Pts 14.

February 8

Derby v Hull City. Forecast 2-1.

Luton v Barnsley. Forecast 2-0.

The Rams will move to within two points of Posh (albeit having played three more games) if they beat a Hull side whose four-game winning streak came to an end at home to Preston on Saturday. A lively home crowd could make the difference against a team who still have Tom Eaves up front. You’d hope in-form Luton would beat out-of-form Barnsley.

February 9

Cardiff v Posh. Forecast 1-1.

Bristol City v Reading. Forecast 2-2.

Both Posh and Reading will view their Wednesday night games as winnable. For Posh that would need to involve the same level of performance they showed at Birmingham in their last away game, but without the late collapse. Hopefully three new players will help, but Cardiff also strengthened on deadline day and have won their last two Championship matches, impressively against Forest and scrappily at Barnsley. They even rested a couple of players from their FA Cup tie at Liverpool yesterday which suggests they don’t think they are safe yet and they see the visit of Posh as a big game. Reading are also flaky on their travels, but Bristol City are inconsistent so result at Ashton Gate would be a surprise. Having Lucas Joao fit again is huge for Reading.

February 12

Barnsley v QPR. Forecast 1-3.

Posh v Preston. Forecast 1-1.

Middlesbrough v Derby. Forecast 2-0.

Reading v Coventry. Forecast 1-2.

Preston have shown decent form under new manager Ryan Lowe to get within four points of a play-off place. They are a typical well-organised, methodical Championship who will be hard to beat. They’ve won two and drawn one of their last three away matches without conceding a goal. QPR, Middlesbrough and Coventry should be too strong for their relegation-threatened opponents.

February 16

Posh v Reading. Forecast 1-0.

This will be the biggest game seen at London Road this season with so much riding on it. It’s doubtful Sky Sports will see a classic contest, but Posh won’t care if they collect the win that gets them out of the bottom three.

February 19

Coventry v Barnsley. Forecast 3-0.

Derby v Posh. Forecast 1-1.

Preston v Reading. Forecast 2-1.

Another huge game for Posh and they will have to deal with a large passionate home crowd as well as Wayne Rooney’s committed team. Tough games for Barnsley and Reading. Our one concern re Barnsley is the availability of the manager Valerien Ismael who inspired some fantastic results for the Tykes last season. Current boss Poya Asbaghi hasn’t overseen a win in any of the 10 Championship matches under his care.

February 22

Hull v Barnsley. Forecast 2-1.

Reading v Birmingham. Forecast 1-0.

Reading will see this is a big chance to get three points. Birmingham will be better than they showed against Posh last month having signed a couple of new players, but they will be vulnerable. Forget Barnsley unless they’ve apppointed another new manager.

February 23

Derby v Millwall. Forecast 0-0.

Fulham v Posh. Forecast 3-0.

Posh might have to write this game against the free-scoring league leaders off, although Reading and Blackpool have taken points from trips to the Cottage this season. Derby v Millwall could be a complete bore-fest.

February 26

Barnsley v Middlesbrough. Forecast 0-2.

Blackpool v Reading. Forecast 1-0.

Luton v Derby. Forecast 2-0.

Posh v Hull. Forecast 2-1.

Posh can complete a league double over Hull whose new-found riches haven’t yet been splashed on the team, although the arrival on loan of Brentford forward Marcus Forss is a concern. Jack Taylor scored a great goal at Hull earlier this season and hopefully he will be back fit and firing by the end of February.

Blackpool have shown Posh what can be achieved with excellent recruitment and coaching and their enthusiasm for Championship football will see them past Reading, hopefully.

End of February prediction: 21st: Posh P33, Pts 29; 22nd: Reading P33, Pts26; 23rd: Derby P34, Pts 20; 24th: Barnsley P33, Pts 14.