Voter ID has minor effect in Fenland elections but turnout remains below national average

Just 17 people were unable to vote in Fenland’s District Council elections earlier this month after failing to produce an accepted form of voter ID.

While 56 people initially reported to polling stations without it on 4 May, 39 later returned with ID and were issued a ballot.

This means that just 0.2 per cent of voters weren’t issued a ballot despite requesting one – smaller than the 0.4 (or 110 people) not issued a ballot in Peterborough’s City Council elections.

But turnout in Peterborough was stronger than in Fenland: 30.46 per cent compared to 26.24 per cent in Fenland’s district wards and 24.99 per cent in its town and parish wards.

Turnout was particularly low in Wisbech: in Wisbech Riverside it was 19.85 per cent, while in Wisbech North it was just 17.01 per cent.

In Wisbech Clarkson – one of the seats making up Wisbech Town Council – turnout was lower still: 15.84 per cent.

But these figures aren’t particularly unusual for Fenland, where turnout was 26.28 per cent in its district wards at its last election and 25.5 per cent in its town and parish wards.

There wasn’t much change in Peterborough, either: this year’s turnout was a very minor improvement on last year’s 30 per cent.

And, nationally, only around a third of us typically vote in local elections in any given year, while more than two thirds typically vote in general elections.

Voter ID may, then, become a talking point again at the next general election when, for many, it will be the first time they’re asked to produce it, but this year’s local election were its first official test.

Any evidence of its effect on turnout will form the basis of an Electoral Commission report due in September, with further Government analysis expected in November.

While the numbers of voters turned away were minor, at least in Fenland, they cannot be written off, though, in elections where very small numbers of votes can and do determine outcomes.

There is no one single reason why turnout is so low in Fenland, whether or not voter ID is required, but something that might reasonably be considered either a symptom or a cause is that there is rarely much change in its political makeup.

Fenland District Council (FDC) has had a Conservative majority since 1976 (other than a brief spell from 1995–1999 when Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair was elected and even Fenland went red).

This year was no different and, despite its ward boundaries being redrawn and Labour fielding 20 candidates, the Conservatives strengthened their majority while Labour didn’t win a single seat.

FDC’s political makeup is now two Liberal Democrats, six independents and some 35 Conservatives.

In Peterborough, the balance is far more precarious, with the Conservatives winning the most seats as usual this year but still failing to secure a majority – which they last enjoyed in 2018.

Like Fenland, Peterborough has not had a Labour majority since the late 1990s, but with the Conservatives losing hundreds of seats at councils across the country earlier this month all opposition parties are eyeing up possible gains next year if that trend continues.

Fenland, though, will remain Conservative.

While Peterborough holds its election in thirds each year, Fenland holds all-out elections every four years and as such will remain blue at least until 2027.