Where has it all gone wrong for Peterborough United? And can they put it right to avoid disaster?

And the worst thing about that awful statistic? It doesn’t come as a great surprise. In fact it doesn’t come as a surprise at all. It pretty much happened last season.

The 2026-27 campaign hasn’t gone as planned, but it has gone as many of us feared, even if those in charge of recruitment are still displaying confidence levels out of kilter with events on the pitch.

Me? In the PT I predicted a 20th-place finish in League One before a competitive ball had been kicked based on the playing squad becoming weaker as the strength in depth of the division became stronger. If Posh do go on to finish 20th – that’s one place above the relegation zone – I’d gladly take it, move on, and pray for a much better summer, although with very little expectation of it happening unless the recruitment model is updated.

Daniel Storey’s excellent article in the Independent newspaper this week mentioned how the Posh transfer strategy of recruiting from non-league and selling at a big profit was now being copied by bigger, richer clubs with the resources to outbid Darragh MacAnthony’s men for today’s equivalent of George Boyd and Jack Taylor. Is it a reason Posh ended up paying a scary £700k for 20 year-old forward Danny Ormerod? It’s a huge amount to pay for someone to learn League One on the job, a tough task even if Posh weren’t one of the three worst teams in the division.

Posh were poor last season and ended up 18th even with gifted players who delivered impressive goalscoring and creativity numbers like JJ Morgan and Kyrell Lisbie in the side. They both departed to be replaced by inferior types, although it should be noted Lisbie only netted in one game pre-Bonfire Night, his hat-trick in a Trophy tie against Aston Villa Under 21, before hitting his scoring straps.

All hope this season is viewed through the lens from last season. Posh had 13 points from 10 games last season, the same as now. They had scored 10 goals, one fewer than this season, and conceded 22, also one fewer than this season. Posh are actually two places better off now than 12 months ago when they were rock bottom. They are crumbs of comfort, but also proof form can change in an instant. Posh escaped trouble last season, but if you keep dicing with danger you will eventually fail.

Posh picked up 40 points from their final 33 matches last term which was enough to secure safety by four points, but they finished the campaign with what can only be described as reverse momentum (1 win in the final 15 matches) and that slide has carried on into the current season with no end in sight, not helped by the muddled thought process which saw right-back Carl Johnston playing in midfield in early skirmishes.

Even a special win at Leicester City, immediately after a much-needed change of manager, was followed by a failure to beat Burton Albion and Bromley.

Luke Williams replaced Darren Ferguson as manager with Posh bottom of the table after 13 games last season and initially proved to be an inspired appointment. His team were particularly adept at beating the weaker teams, and there were a lot of them, as they surged to within a handful of points of the play-offs.

Those results foolishly persuaded those in charge to not recruit a single player in the winter transfer window, other than Jacob Mendy which was done as a quid pro deal involving Wrexham and Tom O’Connor. Posh were the only League One team not to sign anyone last January – Mendy arrived on February 2 when he was technically an out of contract player – something that has to change if the club has not escaped the relegation mire by next New Year’s Day. Injuries then forced Posh to field strikers who nine months on can’t get into a couple of League Two starting XIs.

Worryingly chairman MacAnthony has already suggested Posh will have to sell before buying, but who can they sell? Matt Garbett’s value is only decreasing as he struggles to make an impact post-injury and letting Harry Leonard go without an oven-ready replacement, or even two, would be suicidal.

Leonard needs to up his game. Despite less able players around him chances have still arrived pretty regularly, but he’s been missing too many of them. It was a similar tale for Craig Mackail-Smith, the man now coaching and advising Leonard, when he first turned up at Posh and he turned out okay.

A rookie EFL manager certainly needs the help of his senior players and there is hope to be found there, providing they can also stay fit. Ignore the actual mauling and be pleased Posh got another hour into Sam Hughes and 90 minutes into O’Connor against Reading. Posh are well off now for centre-backs, but playing three of them in the same game should be avoided unless proper wing-backs turn up.

Posh under Robbie Savage, that rookie boss, have picked up five points from five games - it was five points from eight matches before he arrived – and it wouldn’t take much improvement in terms of points per game to get the club past the usual safety line of 50 points.

Savage has overseen games against two top four sides and another who will most likely end up in the play-offs or better so he shouldn’t be written off, even by those who would rather be proved right in opposing his appointment than see the most high profile footballing figure at London Road since Mark Lawrenson succeed.

Lawrenson was at Posh before social media empowered the stupid and the abusive. High toxicity levels, and they are usually a big exaggeration of the truth, come with the territory now, but Fergie had the best approach – one that Savage might copy – of never looking at X.

Perhaps surprisingly the average Posh home attendance for League One games is slightly higher this season (8,491) compared to last season (8,435), but then the big fan bases of Sheffield Wednesday and Luton Town are among the six to visit London Road so far.

Avoiding X will certainly be a good tactic if Posh lose to Cambridge United at home in the last game of November, but that fixture is followed by a run of games against teams in the bottom half of the table so opportunity to get out of trouble will come knocking. Five of seven games in December are against teams currently in the bottom half of League One, as are the first three games in January.

Savage has done some good work alongside masterminding that one great day in Leicester. He’s discarded players who were indulged for far too long last season. Until the Reading FA Cup debacle, Posh had been shooting more and creating more chances. He can’t be expected to run on the pitch to finish them off.

He and his team have been handcuffed by injuries and misfortune. Only two of his five League One games have been at home. Am I clutching at straws? Probably yes and it’s true Savage will have to avoid the tactical slip ups that helped Reading to run riot and it might become a cause of regret not to have brought more experienced staff with him.

Time will tell. Let’s hope there’s enough left to make a difference. League Two football for the first time in 20 years would be a concern financially for the club and a disaster emotionally for the fans.