The stats that back up Peterborough United manager's claim, but the supercomputer still says no

Peterborough United should currently be comfortable in mid-table in League One according to the expected goals experts at FotMob, a popular mobile app which specialises in football data.

According to FotMob Posh should be 12th with eight points rather than 21st with five points, based on their expected goals for and against in six League One games this season. Expected goals stats are based on the quality of scoring chances created and conceded during a game.

Ben Woods celebrates a goal in the only Posh win of the League One season so far, against Mansfield at London Road. Photo David Lowndes.

placeholder image — Ben Woods celebrates a goal in the only Posh win of the League One season so far, against Mansfield at London Road. Photo David Lowndes.

This appears to back up a claim made by Posh boss Luke Williams on Monday when he said: “We deserve a few more points than we have and there is some interesting data out there which suggests that as well.”

Posh should have scored eight goals rather than four – the lowest tally in the division - this season and conceded nine goals rather than 10. When those stats are transferred into expected points for all teams Posh would be nine places higher.

The biggest jump in the table is from bottom club Doncaster who would be fifth in League One with 10 points, rather than bottom with three.

The biggest over-achievers based on XG are Cambridge United who would be 21st instead of fourth.

XG Table (real positions in brackets): 1 Sheff Wed (1st), 2 Reading (14th), 3 Huddersfield (2nd), 4 Stockport (8th), 5 Doncaster (24th), 6 Luton (12th), 7 Notts C (16th), 8 Wigan (23rd), 9 Bradford C (3rd), 10 MK Dons (20th), 11 Barnsley (18th), 12 POSH (21st), 13 Stevenage (9th), 14 Wycombe (19th), 15 Leicester (13th), 16 Oxford (5th), 17 Blackpool (10th), 18 Plymouth (6th), 19 Burton (11th), 20 Mansfield (17th), 21 Cambridge (4th), 22 Bromley (22nd), 23 Wimbledon (7th), 24 Orient (15th).

The PT’s supercomputer of choice BETSIE is still condemning Posh to season of struggle. BETSIE is the brainchild of Betarades and apparently has simulated the league season 100,000 times, accounting for all match results from pre-season and the previous campaign. It projects outcomes based on pre-season expectations, fixture difficulty, and underlying performance metrics such as xG for and against.

Supercomputer final table: 1 Leicester, 2 Luton, 3 Sheff Wed, 4 Huddersfield, 5 Oxford, 6 Stockport, 7 Bradford C, 8 Plymouth, 9 Orient, 10 MK Dons, 11 Reading, 12 Cambridge, 13 Wycombe, 14 Blackpool, 15 Stevenage, 16 Notts C, 17 Wigan, 18 Mansfield, 19 Wimbledon, 20 Burton, 21 Barnsley, 22 POSH, 23 Doncaster, 24 Bromley.