The size of the task now facing Darren Ferguson and Peterborough United is pretty big. How many points will they need for the top six?

The most obvious response is to point out that Ferguson has won a promotion from League One in each of his three previous spells at The Weston Homes Stadium.

Winning a fourth looks sure prove to be the most dificult though, given the size and quality of some of the clubs above them, especially if he sticks to his plan of leaving London Road at the end of the season.

Ferguson has never won his first game in charge of Posh in any of his spells with the club.

Slow starts

And in Ferguson’s previous League One promotion seasons with Posh they’ve never had as few as the 35 points the team has now from the first 24 games, but that doesn’t tell the whole story,

2008-09

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Posh were 11 points better off at this stage in 2009 and sitting in fourth place. They’d only won promotion from League Two the previous season, but they powered through the second-half of this campaign to reach 89 points for a second place finish and automatic promotion. Posh finished seven points behind champions Leicester City and left Leeds United (4th) and Brighton (16th) among others in their wake.

2010-11

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This is the season, statistically speaking at least, which gives Posh hope for the current campaign. Posh were only four points better off (but also four places better off in fifth) than they are now after 24 games, but they added another 40 points from the final 21 matches to finish fourh before charging through the play-offs to promotion. The only drawback is there is no Craig Mackail-Smith, George Boyd, Lee Tomlin, Grant McCann or Gaby Zakuani in the current Posh squad!

2020-21

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Ferguson’s last League One promotion with Posh was won in a Covid season. Looking back the absence of crowds probably helped Posh as the bigger clubs in the division didn’t have the advantage of their huge support, particularly at home games. There is no doubt the crowds at Plymouth, Derby, Sheffield Wednesday, Ipswich and Bolton are big factors in some impressive form this season. Posh were fifth after 24 games in this season and delivered some consistent results on the run-in to snag second place with 87 points, two points behind Grant McCann’s champion Hull City side and seven points clear of Blackpool in third.

**The average points tally of teams finishing sixth in League One and thus securing a place in the play-offs in the last 10 seasons (discounting the shortened 2019-20 season) is 73.5.

Posh need 39 points from their final 21 games to get past that total and even then it might not be enough. Wyco mbe finished sixth with 80 points last season!

Posh sneaked into the top six with 74 points in 2013-14, but given the dominance of the current top three it could be a smaller target. Chesterfield finished sixth in 2014-15 with 69 points.

Posh finished with 72 points in the 2018-19 season and missed out on the play-offs by a single point.

Points recorded by teams finishing sixth in League One: 2021-22: Wycombe 80; 2020-21: Oxford 74; 2018-19: Doncaster 73 (Posh 72); 2017-18: Charlton: 71; 2016-17: Millwall: 73; 2015-16: Barnsley 74; 2014-15: Chesterfield 69; 2013-14: POSH 74; 2012-13: Swindon 74; 2011-12: Stevenage 73

Last 10 years: Hiughest 80, lowest 69, average 73.5.