The seven reasons why Peterborough United should beat Wycombe Wanderers in the PPG derby at Wembley!

It can be traced back to the Covid-shortened season of 2019-20 and the crazy way the EFL decided to allocate finishing positions in their divisions.

In their wisdom they decided a points-per-game (PPG) formula based on matches already played, which didn’t take into account home and away games played, or the difficulty of matches to come, was the way forward.

That left a Posh side in blistering form led by a rampant Ivan Toney on the outside looking in, while Wycombe, who were eighth at the time, ended up in the play-offs (after voting that no-one else should be allowed to keep playing) and they went on to win them.

Since then Posh have proved themselves to be the better team – they constantly finish above the Chairboys – but they find it hard to beat them. Posh have won just one of the last seven competitive meetings with Wycombe.

Here is why they should buck that trend on Sunday and gain cold revenge for events from four years ago…

1) Posh are 23 points better off in League One this season than Wycombe. They have scored 26 more goals and conceded two fewer. In terms Wycombe understand, there’s currently a PPG difference of 1.85 to 1.275.

2) Posh will have a fan advantage of 7,241 (22,636 to 15,395) at Wembley and they will probably enjoy plenty of support from all over the country given the attractiveness of their football. Darren Ferguson’s side are all about entertainment. They won’t try and time-waste their way to victory.

3) The law of averages is on Posh’s side. They haven’t won any of the last five competitive matches against Wycombe. They’ve won just one of the last seven. All runs come to an end eventually, especially when the team on the wrong end of the results is usually so superior over an entire season.

4) This game is at Wembley and if ever a venue was designed to suit this Posh team it’s this one. A big pitch which offers plenty of space and a true playing surface should be ideal for a team who like to get the ball down and play while utilising extreme forward pace. I’m looking forward to seeing Ricky-Jade Jones, Ephron Mason-Clark and Kwame Poku strut their stuff on Sunday. A warning though. The playing surface at Adams Park, home of Wycombe Wanderers, is also excellent and Posh lost 5-2 there a couple of months ago albeit when missing key players.

5) Posh have been very up and down in 2024, but they travelled to their Trophy semi-final at League One promotion rivals Blackpool on the back of four straight defeats and delivered a high class display in front of the live TV cameras. The following night Wycombe fluked a win at League Two strugglers Bradford City. That was a thirdPosh win in three when games have been live on TV this season and they scored three goals, against stronger opposition than Wycombe, each time (v Derby, Blackpool and Stevenage).

6) There is a historical reason to believe Posh will win. Posh have played at Wembley three times and won them all. A warning though as Wycombe have more recent experience of Wembley then Posh. They’ve played there three times since Posh were last there in 2014 (one win, two defeats, all in play-off finals).

7) Ronnie Edwards will be the classiest and coolest player on the pitch. He will revel in a big game atmosphere at a big stadium with the opportunity to finally persuade a Premier League to come and sign him.