Peterborough United can't give up on the League One play-offs just yet, but they also need to keep an eye on those beneath them
Peterborough United can’t give up on the prize of a League One play-off place just yet, even though they’ve lost four of their last six matches.
The modest form of others has kept 11th-placed Posh within five points of sixth-placed Huddersfield Town, although there are four teams between the two clubs, all of whom have at least one game in hand. Huddersfield currently occupy the final play-off place.
6 Huddersfield P33 49pts
7 Stevenage P31 48pts
8 Reading P32 47pts
9 Luton P32 45pts
10 Wycombe P32 44pts
11 POSH P33 44pts
The five teams below Posh also have the games in hand to overtake Luke Williams’ side so gauging how many points are required to finish in the play-off spots is tough.
The teams finishing sixth in the last 10 full seasons (ignoring the Covid-interrupted season of 2019-20) have accumulated an average of 74.8 points.
In the 2021-22 season Wycombe finished sixth with 83 points, the biggest tally in the last 10 years, with Plymouth Argyle amassing 80 points and still missing out on the play-offs.
In the 2014-15 Chesterfield finished sixth with 69 points, the lowest tally in the last 10 years.
Posh finished sixth with 77 points in the 2022-23 season.
For Posh to reach the average sixth-placed end-of-season points score they would need 31 points from their final 13 games which would be incredibly difficult, but in such a poor standard League One this season it’s likely a much lower points return would be needed for a top-six finish. Huddersfield have got to average two points a game for the rest of the season to reach 75 points.
Because of the closeness of the competition this season it could also mean a higher points tally is required to avoid relegation.
The average points total of the team finishing fourth from bottom, i.e the final relegation place, over the last 10 seasons, again ignoring the 2019-20 season, is 46.7. Posh already have 44 points so they will pass that total with one more win. That isn’t likely to be enough this time around.
Three teams in the past 10 years have finished fourth bottom with 50 points and thus been relegated. The relegated clubs with the highest points tally of the last decade are Notts County (2014-15), Oldham Athletic (2017-18) and AFC Wimbledon (2018-19).
Gillingham finished in the last relegation slot with the lowest points total of the last decade with just 40 points in 2021-22. Remarkably Fleetwood survived that season on 40 points on goal difference.
Posh are currently 10 points and 10 places above the relegation zone. They are seven points shy of last season’s total of 51 points which led to an 18th-place finish, five points above the bottom four.
Posh host Exeter City on Saturday.