How many points will Peterborough United need to stay up this season? It’s probably fewer than you’d expect

An average of a point per-game over the last 35 matches could see Peterborough United survive in the Championship this season.

Tuesday, 5th October 2021, 3:31 pm
The managers of the bottom two clubs in the Championship Darren Ferguson of Posh and Wayne Rooney of Derby County.

The average number of points needed for Championship survival over the last 10 seasons is 45. And that number is inflated by the exceptional season of 2012-13 when 55 points was needed to stay up. Posh famously went down with a record 54 points that season after losing their first seven games. Posh haave just eight points from their opening 11 matches this season.

On only one other occasion in the last decade (2016-17) has more than 50 points been required.

Indeed 41 points was enough for survival in 2018-19, 2015-16 and in 2011-12.

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Last season Wycombe Wanderers went down with 43 points, while Derby County survived with 44. Derby would have been relegated, but for a six-point deduction for Sheffield Wednesday because of financial irregularities.

With Derby facing the possibility of a total 21 points in deductions and Reading staring at a nine-point deduction, it’s unlikely anything like 50 points will be needed this season.

For Posh to reach 45 points this season they basically just need to collect marginally more than a point a game from their last 35 matches (another 37 points).

That’s far from impossible.