Five factors that could determine the outcome when Cobblers host Posh on derby day
I forced myself to watch Northampton Town v Port Vale on Tuesday night, purely for professional reasons as there was never going to be any joy gained from the actual football.
It was as bad a game as I expected between two very limited teams who managed two shots on target between them, both of them from Vale. To be fair it was a pretty standard game for League One this season. Posh have also been involved in some shockers, usually against Stevenage.
Taken at face value Posh would fancy beating this version of Cobblers at Sixfields on Saturday, but football is never that simple. It often comes down to a clash of styles and this could partly be why Posh boss Luke Williams has already dismissed poor form going into a derby as irrelevant.
Tactics that could decide the outcome on Saturday...
1) Cobblers like to move the ball forward quickly and throw as many crosses into the penalty area as possible. This wasn’t an issue for Port Vale the other night because they fielded three big centre-halves who only had powerful centre forward Tom Eaves to worry about. Vale pretty much won every first penalty area contact, but it’s unlikely a undersized Posh back four, including three right-backs, could ever enjoy such dominance. I assume it will be a back four even though young centre-backs George Nevett and Lucca Mendonca will be in the matchday squad. Neither of them are physical or great in the air and Williams doesn’t seem like a boss who will change his own style to counter an opponent. Stopping the crosses will be essential if Posh are to win. Cobblers boss Kevin Nolan referenced the need to start delivering constant crosses again in his own pre-match briefing, and he will have noted Posh conceded two goals from right-wing crosses last weekend.
2) Williams was asked about set pieces during his pre-match press conference with BBC Radio Cambs revealing two-thirds of Cobblers’ goals this season (20 out of 30) have come from set-plays, that is long throws, free-kicks and corners. Posh have been fairly good at defending set-pieces in recent weeks. With Peter Kioso and Lucca Mendonca as centre-backs at Stevenage recently Posh defended well, albeit against small forwards, until they were undone by a corner late in the game after a successful ‘hold’ on Posh ‘keeper Alex Bass enabled a big centre-back to get free and score. Bass has a huge role to play in defusing corners on Saturday. The other Posh players must ensure he is protected.
3) In December at London Road Cobblers flew at Posh and caused many issues with the ferocity of their press, but a 10th minute red card stopped them in their tracks. They lacked the defensive organisation to cope after that and were lucky they weren’t several goals behind before they launched their late comeback. Posh can expect a similar press on Saturday, one harder to play through on a tricky, tight pitch, and need to be prepared. Posh often struggle in the opening stages of matches until opponents tire so getting through the first 15 minutes unscatched will be vital. If that means hitting Harry Leonard and two quick wingers earlier than so be it. Posh don’t tend to do well when falling behind, last weekend was an exception, as opponents have the luxury of sitting back in numbers and Williams’ team doesn’t have high-class passing midfielders who can unlock packed defences.
4) The Cobblers’ crowd turned on their players and manager as soon as Vale took the lead on Tuesday. The fans were of no help to a struggling team after that. That won’t be the case at the start of Saturday’s game given their bitterest rivals are in town, but just imagine if Posh were to dominate the early stages and then score early? Posh will probably go the other way and try to slow the game down early on, by knocking the ball about the back between themselves, but passing with more attacking purpose might be the best way to go to try and ensure they score first.
5) Fatigue is real in professional football, especially with small squads on the heavy pitches that are currently prevalent. The Posh players looked knackered after three away games in eight days recently, but have just had a week off. Cobblers have just completed three games in eight days. Two were at home, but they looked laded towards the end of the Vale game so they won’t relish the prospect of keeping tabs on two quick wingers. If they play with wing-backs, which they didn’t for the first time on Tuesday, there will be plenty of space for Kyrell Lisbie and, probably, Cian Hayes to exploit and then run at centre-backs built more for physical confrontation than meetings with sheer pace.
My Posh team for Cobblers assuming no key men have returned from injury.
(4-2-3-1)
Bass
Dornelly, Kioso, Okagbue, Johnston
Collins, Khela.
Morgan
Hayes, Leonard, Lisbie.