10 reasons why Peterborough United can still finish in the automatic promotion places in League One

Posh have lost all three matches this month, while the top three Portsmouth, Derby and Bolton have all been relentless in their points gathering.

Current top six

Portsmouth P33 69pts

Derby P32 63pts

Bolton P30 62pts

Barnsley P41 57pts

POSH P31 56pts

Oxford P32 55pts

But all hope is not yet lost for the following reasons….

1) Posh have shown in a negative way what can happen in a short space of time. On February 1 Posh were four points off top spot with a game in hand on Portsmouth. It’s now February 14 and that gap has grown to 13 points with two matches in hand so change can happen quickly. This Posh team has shown they put good runs together and it could easily happen again. Expecting the top three to start losing regularly when they’ve only lost 17 of 95 matches between them this season is more fanciful though.

2) Posh have nine of their 15 remaining matches at home, which given the state of the playing surface might not seem that much of an advantage. But Posh were playing on a ploughed field at London Road the last time they won promotion to the Championship in the 2020-21 season so don’t rule them because of a terrible home playing surface. Sure it’s a team with a different style, but good technique and a deft first touch should be decisive on an uneven pitch and Posh have that throughout the first-choice starting XI. Anyway Posh have just played on two of the best pitches in the division and lost to two very modest teams so the bad pitch excuse now looks weak.

3) Two of the top three have still to come to the Weston Homes Stadium which right now look like must win matches. Bolton are here on the final day of the season. If Posh win their games in hand and beat Pompey at home next month the gap between the teams will be down to a manageable four points. Bolton have a tough programme remaining in February including two Lancashire derbies on the road at the end of the month. First order of business for Posh is to win their last two games in February to ensure they are in position to take advantage of any slip ups.

4) The only away game left against a team in the current top seven for Posh is Oxford. It’s not a fearsome fixture list, providing the big names stay fit and available. The last three matches have shown what happens when star names are missing.

5) Are the current top three really that good? Pompey overpowered Posh early in the season before Darren Ferguson had his side fully revved up, but Posh were better than Bolton and Derby in away games this season. The Rams won at Posh after a ridiculous 15 minute spell they haven’t produced since. They will all drop points so let’s hope two of them drop enough.

6) Posh are managed by a serial promotion winner in Darren Ferguson who is canny enough to try and make a positive out of his side no being written off as automatic promotion candidates. The pressure has eased whereas the three much bigger clubs above them will also carry much greater expectations. Pompey are managed by a rookie – albeit one with an outstanding record – with no experience of what is about come his way. Derby’s manager has also won multiple promotions from this division, but he has 30,000 home fans at a former Premier League club to keep happy now. There are more twists and turns on the way.

7) Posh believe they have one of the fittest as well as the youngest squad in League One which could be a factor in what looks like being a hard slog to the finish line. This season ends earlier than usual on April 27 so there are many fixtures to cram in. It could well be a survival of the fittest, although Posh will have fingers crossed they don’t have to call up too many from the fringes of the squad. Bolton have 16 League One matches to play in 11 weeks.

8) The law of averages says top-scoring Posh will start converting many more of the multiple scoring chances they create in a game. The law of averages also says a Posh forward line who often enter the opposition penalty area at great pace will start winning penalties. Posh have had two spot-kicks this season when several blatant fouls have been ignored by a terrible set of referees. It’s been a lot easier for Pompey to win penalties for some reason. Have they really been awarded 10 as someone suggested to me last night? Ephron Mason-Clark’s strength, which sees him ride challenges rather than flop over to fool gullible officials, is not always a positive.

9) I did see a suggestion this morning that Posh should put all their energy into beating Blackpool in a League One game on Saturday and treat the EFL Trophy semi-final against the same opponents next Tuesday as an afterthought. There is merit in that argument as the last time Posh won a Trophy semi-final in 2014 they lost five of eight League One games before playing the final at Wembley. I have long thought this competition is an unnecessary distraction, but with the current state of play Posh need to start winning regularly no matter what the competition. You’d hope reaching a Wembley final would be a big fillip for young players who won’t have played there before so beating Blackpool twice would be a huge positive. Ferguson can also use what happened in 2014 as a motivation as well as a warning.

10) On February 14 last season Posh were ninth and nine points off the play-off places. They reached the top six on the final day of the season. You see it can happen!