Posh are bang on course for a top two finish, but here’s why they’ve had it easy so far and why only Sunderland will have it harder for the rest of the season

Peterborough United boss Darren Ferguson says two points per game will secure automatic promotion and his team are currently bang on course (62 points, 31 matches).

Thursday, 4th March 2021, 11:14 am
Posh and Sunderland have the toughest run-ins of all the promotion contenders based on a points per game analysis.

The Posh numbers are better than in their most recent League One promotion seasons.

Posh were on 59 points after 31 games in 2010-11 when they finished fourth with 79 points, and 53 points in 2008-09 when they finished second with 89 points. Last season Posh were on 52 points from 31 games.

Posh are currently top of the table, three points clear of Hull who have played two games more and who visit the Weston Homes Stadium next Tuesday (March 9).

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Ipswich Town have the easiest run in of all the League One promotion contenders based on a points-per-game analyis.

But the Peterborough Telegraph’s go-to data analsyt James Mayley (@ReportPosh on Twitter) points out that, based on points-per-game of all League One clubs, Posh have had the easiest set of fixtures of all teams so far.

They also have the hardest remaining set of fixtures after promotion rivals Sunderland

Of all the promotion contenders in-form Ipswich Town have the most favourable run-in by some distance based on these figures.

The tables below show 1) the teams who have had the easiest fixtures based on the points per game tallies of their opponents they’ve already played and 2) the teams with the hardest remaining fixtures based on the points per game tallies of their opponents to come.

Note: for each team, the opponents’ PPG values above are calculated based on the current PPG of each of the team’s opponents in the league’s regular season, taking into account whether the opponent has been played at home or away (played opponents’ PPG) or will be played at home or away (remaining opponents’ PPG).

Info from soccerstats.com

TABLE 1

(Easiest fixtures so far, average PPG of opponents played).

1) POSH 1.29, 2) Sunderland 1.30, 3) Accrington, Charlton, Plymouth 1.34, 6 Hull 1.35, 7) Lincoln, Doncaster, Oxford, Gillingham 1.36, 11) Portsmouth, Northampton 1.37, 13) Shrewsbury 1.38, 14) Wigan, Bristol Rovers 1.39, 16) Crewe, Fleetwood, Burton, Wimbledon 1.41, 20) Rochdale 1.42, 21) Blackpool 1.43, 22) MK Dons 1.45, 23) Swindon 1.46, 24) Ipswich 1.50.

TABLE 2

(Hardest fixtures to come, average PPG of remaining opponents).

1) Sunderland 1.53, 2) Posh 1.50, 3) Charlton 1.49, Plymouth, Northampton 1.49, 6) Wigan 1.48, 7) Accrington, Gillingham, 1.47, 9) Bristol Rovers 1.43, 10) Oxford 1.42, 11) Hull 1.41, 12) Shrewsbury 1.40, 13) Lincoln, Doncaster, Rochdale, Wimbledon 1.39, 17) Burton, Portsmouth 1.38, 19) Fleetwood 1.36, 20) Crewe 1.33, 21) Blackpool, Swindon 1.29, 23) MK Dons 1.24, 24) Ipswich 1.14.