Peterborough United are likely to need 25 points from their final 15 League One matches to secure a place in the League One play-offs.
The average points for the team finishing sixth in League One - the final play-off spot - in the last 10 years is 74. Posh are stuck on 49 points following their disappointing 1-0 home defeat to Plymouth on Saturday (February 2).
There seems little chance of Posh catching top four Luton, Barnsley, Portsmouth and Sunderland, but fifth-placed Charlton have upset their fanbase by seling star striker Karlan Grant on deadline day for £2 million and not funding an equally talented forward with the proceeds.
Posh can’t be ruled out as long as they discover how to beat the weaker teams. They have already played Luton, Barnsley and Charlton twice.
The most difficult remaining games appear to be at Ferguson’s former club Doncaster (on his 47th birthday) this Saturday (February 9), at home to Sunderland (Easter Monday) and away to Portsmouth (March 30).
When Ferguson took over at Posh in January, 2011 they had 36 points from 22 games. They finished with 79 points from 46 matches.
Anyway the PT has plotted a path to the play-offs
Current points: 49
Points required (based on average points of team finishing 6th in last 10 League One seasons): 74
Feb 9 v Doncaster (away) D
McCann v Fergie to finish all square
Feb 16 v Oxford (away) L
Posh never beat Oxford
Feb 23 v Shrewsbury (home) W
Everyone has started to beat the Shrews
Mar 2 v Wycombe (home) W
Wycombe fluked a win against Posh at Adams Park
Mar 9 v Bradford C (away) D
The Bantams are fighting hard against the drop
Mar 12 v AFC Wimbledon (away) W
The Dons are doomed
Mar 16 v Coventry (home) W
Coventry aren’t very good.
Mar 23 v Southend (home) L
Southend wil be stronger when they reduce that injury list
Mar 30 v Portsmouth (away) L
Pompey had a good transfer window
April 6 v Gillingham (home) W
Not even Gaby Zakuani can save the Gills
April 13 v Blackpool (away) D
Pool have over-achieved again
April 19 v Fleetwood (away) D
Could be a big game on Good Friday
April 22 v Sunderland (home) L
Sunderland also enjoyed a good transfer window
April 27 v Walsall (away) W
Walsall could be relegated by the time Posh get there
May 4 v Burton (home) W
Burton will have nothing to play for on the final day
Total points: 74