How many points Peterborough United need to survive in the Championship, the myth about the Posh home form, and who Posh can catch as long as they improve their away form
Peterborough United need 31 points from their final 16 matches to achieve the average number of points required to stay up in the last 26 seasons.
Since the 1995-96 season an average of 46.87 points has been needed to avoid the drop although this number fluctuates considerably season on season.
Just 40 points would have beaten the drop (with a superior goal difference) in both 2011-12 and 2015-16, while 54 points were not enough to keep Posh up in 2012-13 which was a record number for a relegated team.
To reach 47 points Posh need just 1.19 points per game from now on which doesn’t seem that many- but they are currently averaging just 0.8 points per game.
It’s unlikely 47 points will be required this season though with Derby County’s 21-point deduction effectively deciding one relegation place.
Obviously it needs to improve or Posh are doomed. Three points (and that from a fortunate win at an out-of-sorts Hull City) from 10 away matches is an horrific return.
With the exception of Middlesbrough at the Riverside when they were denied the most blatant of penalties early in the second half with the score at 0-0 and the recent trip to a negative Stoke City side I can’t think of a game when Posh picked up less than they deserved.
They have looked physically frail, mentally weak and prone to terrible defensive lapses.
The bad news is Posh still have to play away at the current top three, four of the top six and six of the top 10.
The fewest points Posh have ever picked up away from home in a single season is 10 (W2 D4 L17) in 1993-94 followed by 11 (W2 D5 L16) in 2009-10. On both occasions Posh finished bottom of the second tier in the Football League.
Contrary to popular opinion Posh do not possess a brilliant record at the Weston Homes Stadium this season. It just seems that way because the performances have been so much better than those seen on the road.
Posh have deserved to pick up more points, a combined four from the games against Cardiff (2), Fulham (1) and Bristol City (1) for a start.
Posh have 13 points from 10 home matches, the 19th best record in the Football League.
But, last Saturday apart, Posh have generally looked good at London Road and it’s that fact that offers hope for the rest of the season.
Posh only have six of the current bottom half teams to play at home which is a concern, especially after the failure to beat Barnsley at London Road last weekend.
From early on in the season it’s been a struggle to find three teams to be confident of finishing below Posh.
Derby because of their financial woes should be one and having now seen Barnsley that could be two as they don’t appear to have the resources to strengthen in January.
Hull were always the third most likely, but fair play to former Posh boss Grant McCann who has mastermined a four-match Tigers’ winning streak which meant a massive 11-point swing with his old club who collected just one point in that time.
Hull remain the most likely team to catch, but they have a handy lead right now.
Reading have players to come back and won’t stay around the bottom and nor will Cardiff City.
There is always a team that slips badly in the second-half of the season though and Posh must hope they are close enough to take advantage. It could be Bristol City or maybe even Blackpool.