Peterborough United need 22 points from their final 15 League One matches to secure a play-off place... if recent history proves to be a reliable guide.
The average points required to finish in the top six in League One over the past decade is 74. Posh currently have 52 points from 31 matches
Huddersfield finished sixth in the 2009/10 season with 80 points, but three teams have occupied the same spot in the last 10 years with just 71 points.
So taking the average points required in that period Posh need roughly three points from every remaining two matches. Maintaining their current average (1.677 points per match) would comfortably be enough.
Posh boss Darren Ferguson is not however setting his side any targets, apart from a top-six finish.
“My players haven’t given up on a top two spot,” Ferguson said after last Saturday’s hard-fought win at Stevenage.
“That is a tall order, but quite simply we want to get as many points as possible and finish as high as possible.
“If we put a winning run together and the teams at the top slow down we will try and take advantage, but it’s consolidating our play-off place which is the current priority.
“We want to win promotion through the play-offs.
“There are a lot of tough games left, but we usually enjoy playing in March. When we’ve had success in the past we’ve done well down the finishing stretch.”
When Posh last won promotion from this division, they won four of their six games in March on the way to accumulating 79 points. They finished fourth, but won promotion through the play-offs.
Posh have eight League One matches in March starting at Crawley on Saturday.
The home match with Gillingham, which was scheduled for the weekend of the Johnstone’s Paint Trophy Final, has now been moved to Tuesday, April 8.
Posh should try and finish fourth!
Only once in the last 10 years has the team finishing in the final play-off place gone on to win promotion - that was Grant McCann’s Scunthorpe United in the 2008-09 season.
The teams finishing fourth have won promotion the most - on four occasions including Posh in the 2010/11 campaign.
The points gained by teams finishing sixth in League One:
2003/04: 73 Hartlepool;
2004/05: 71 Hartlepool;
2005/06: 71 Swansea;
2006/07: 75 Oldham;
2007/08: 76 Southend;
2008/09: 76 Scunthorpe;
2009/10: 80 Huddersfield:
2010/11: 71 Bournemouth
2011/12: 73 Stevenage;
2012/13 74 Swindon.