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Rachel Parkin: Climate change in shopper behaviour
So here we are in May and by all accounts it's not as bad as all the doomsayers predicted. Our late Easter, the delicious warmer weather we're experiencing, and the weakness of the pound which has resulted in many "staycations" are all contributing factors to the groundswell of if not a jubilant, then at least a quietly positive outlook.
So here we are in May and by all accounts it's not as bad as all the doomsayers predicted.
Our late Easter, the delicious warmer weather we're experiencing, and the weakness of the pound which has resulted in many "staycations" are all contributing factors to the groundswell of if not a jubilant, then at least a quietly positive outlook.Furthermore, weather forecasts are for a warmer and drier summer than last year and with swine flu apparently under control, there doesn't seem to be too much to dampen consumer spending – at least on the surface.
Both Next and M&S have recently reported that they think that the UK high street slump may have "bottomed out" although both stated that it was not over, just not as bad as they thought it was going to be.
As the game of spotting positive green shoots of growth becomes a more acceptable game to play, then the good news is really that as long as you've kept your job thus far, while the future may not be exactly orange it's a heck of a lot brighter than it was.
Sir Philip Green, the retail tycoon who owns a good portion of your high street, has merged BHS & Arcadia, which is probably safest for BHS because, with the demise of C&A, littlewoods and Woolworths, could BHS really be that far behind? The "future" concept is being trialed right here in Peterborough with all the mass market brands incorporated into one store.
The most exciting thing to happen for retail in the last month or so must have been the debut of Topshop in America – flying the flag for the Uk with a nod to the Cool Britannia status that seems to have ruled so long ago now. With Top Shop doing well Stateside, the industry guess is that Sir Philip will probably separate it out from the rest of the brands under his control, and float it, which could seal its future as a truly global brand competing with the likes of Zara and H&M among others.
If it really is as I and other retailers would like to believe, that the worst of the recession is behind us, then even among the good news stories we have to acknowledge that leading retail think tanks and consultancies are predicting a "climate change" in shoppers' behaviour.
In their opinion global shopping behaviour will undergo a fundamental and irreversible shift with long-term repercussions following the end of the recession. They predict that even as consumer confidence improves, a "recessionary mindset has taken hold" which has customers saving their money and living within their means, and making "value" the primary purchasing factor – although we must remember that value is a relative term and has different connotations for each of us in turn.
The recent devaluation in our currency has been particularly unhelpful at a time when retailers are watching costs like never before, although most of us admit that many of the problems on the high street are more to do with confidence than any particular issue. In many homes disposable income has even risen slightly if you compare it to a year ago, due to the decreases in petrol costs, interest rates and supermarkets curtailing commodity items pricing.
From my own small and cosy corner of the high street, I think that while the retail survivors emerging will bear a few battle scars to show their journey, they’ll still become bright and cheerful butterflies – retail doesn’t stay down for long and summer sunshine can heal a lot of wounds.
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Weather for Peterborough
Wednesday 23 May 2012
Today
Cloudy
Temperature: 11 C to 22 C
Wind Speed: 10 mph
Wind direction: North
Tomorrow
Cloudy
Temperature: 11 C to 21 C
Wind Speed: 14 mph
Wind direction: North east
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